Search results for "weibull distribution"
showing 10 items of 42 documents
Generalized feed-forward based method for wind energy prediction
2013
Abstract Even though a number of new mathematical functions have been proposed for modeling wind speed probability density distributions, still the Weibull function continues to be the most commonly used model in the literature. Therefore, the parameters of this function are still widely used to obtain typical wind probability density distributions for finding the wind energy potential by researchers, engineers and designers. Once long-term average of Weibull function’s parameters are known, then the probability density distributions can easily be obtained. Artificial neural network (ANN) can be used as alternative to analytical approach as ANN offers advantages such as no required knowledg…
The Effect of Damage and Geometrical Variability on the Tensile Strength Distribution of Flax Fibers
2010
Natural fibers of plant origin are finding non-traditional applications as reinforcement of composite materials. The mechanical properties of fibers exhibit considerable scatter, being affected by the natural variability in plant as well as the damage accumulated during processing. For bast fibers, the primary damage mode is kink bands – zones of misaligned cellulose microfibrils extending across the fiber and oriented roughly perpendicularly to its axis. Another feature typical for natural fibers and contributing to the scatter of fiber strength is the variability of diameter along a fiber length and among the fibers. An analytical expression for the distribution of the longitudinal tensil…
Weibull Prediction Limits for a Future Number of Failures Under Parametric Uncertainty
2012
In this paper, we present an accurate procedure, called “within-sample prediction of order statistics,” to obtain prediction limits for the number of failures that will be observed in a future inspection of a sample of units, based only on the results of the first in-service inspection of the same sample. The failure-time of such units is modeled with a two-parameter Weibull distribution indexed by scale and shape parameters β and δ, respectively. It will be noted that in the literature only the case is considered when the scale parameter β is unknown, but the shape parameter δ is known. As a rule, in practice the Weibull shape parameter δ is not known. Instead it is estimated subjectively …
A family of weakest link models for fiber strength distribution
2007
It is well known that the most widely used distribution function for fiber tensile strength, the two-parameter Weibull distribution, does not always adequately describe the experimentally observed fiber strength scatter and the strength dependence on fiber length. To remedy this discrepancy, modifications of the Weibull distribution have been proposed that, while providing a good empirical fit to the strength data, sometimes lack the theoretical appeal of the weakest link models. We derive a family of weakest link models based on the assumption of a two-stage failure process incorporating explicitly the probabilities of flaw initiation and the fiber fracture due to the largest flaw (i.e. th…
Estimation of wind velocity over a complex terrain using the Generalized Mapping Regressor
2010
Abstract Wind energy evaluation is an important goal in the conversion of energy systems to more environmentally friendly solutions. In this paper, we present a novel approach to wind speed spatial estimation on the isle of Sicily (Italy): an incremental self-organizing neural network (Generalized Mapping Regressor – GMR) is coupled with exploratory data analysis techniques in order to obtain a map of the spatial distribution of the average wind speed over the entire region. First, the topographic surface of the island was modelled using two different neural techniques and by exploiting the information extracted from a digital elevation model of the region. Then, GMR was used for automatic …
Recurrence time distribution and temporal clustering properties of a cellular automaton modelling landslide events
2018
Abstract. Reasonable prediction of landslide occurrences in a given area requires the choice of an appropriate probability distribution of recurrence time intervals. Although landslides are widespread and frequent in many parts of the world, complete databases of landslide occurrences over large periods are missing and often such natural disasters are treated as processes uncorrelated in time and, therefore, Poisson distributed. In this paper, we examine the recurrence time statistics of landslide events simulated by a cellular automaton model that reproduces well the actual frequency-size statistics of landslide catalogues. The complex time series are analysed by varying both the threshold…
Demonstrating measure-correlate-predict algorithms for estimation of wind resources in central Finland
2010
In this study, measure-correlate-predict (MCP) algorithms - Simple Linear Regression and Variance Ratio Methods - for predicting wind speed were studied. The MCP algorithms were successfully used to predict missing wind speeds at two sites in Jyväskylä and Viitasaari, respectively. These two algorithms used data from one of the site to predict missing wind speed data at the other site. The results obtained using the MCP methods were compared using metrics that showed the characteristics of the predicted data to be unbiased compared to measured data. From the data of this study, we also evaluated wind power density at both sites which categorized the local wind resources as poor since the de…
Generating survival times to simulate Cox proportional hazards models
2005
Simulation studies present an important statistical tool to investigate the performance, properties and adequacy of statistical models in pre-specified situations. One of the most important statistical models in medical research is the proportional hazards model of Cox. In this paper, techniques to generate survival times for simulation studies regarding Cox proportional hazards models are presented. A general formula describing the relation between the hazard and the corresponding survival time of the Cox model is derived, which is useful in simulation studies. It is shown how the exponential, the Weibull and the Gompertz distribution can be applied to generate appropriate survival times f…
Real-time parameter estimation of Zika outbreaks using model averaging
2017
SUMMARYEarly prediction of the final size of any epidemic and in particular for Zika disease outbreaks can be useful for health authorities in order to plan the response to the outbreak. The Richards model is often been used to estimate epidemiological parameters for arboviral diseases based on the reported cumulative cases in single- and multi-wave outbreaks. However, other non-linear models can also fit the data as well. Typically, one follows the so called post selection estimation procedure, i.e., selects the best fitting model out of the set of candidate models and ignores the model uncertainty in both estimation and inference since these procedures are based on a single model. In this…
Study of the reliability of internal combustion engines by application of a Weibull model in bands
2009
The performance of 1,6 l four-valve Otto cycle engines is examined in this paper from the point of view of excessive consumption of lubricating oil. Three failure bands were recognized, at low, medium, and high distance traveled, each one obtained from a sample of 15 vehicles. A “Weibull model in bands” was applied; we obtained a satisfactory result from the point of view of reliability and applied the method to several types of motor vehicle. FMEA analysis of a sample permitted identification of the principal causes of unevenness in cylinder surfaces and an evaluation of the methods of machining required to correct this unevenness. Finishing of cylinders with a flexible smoothing tool is a…